Models of prognosis of time series: proposal for aeronautical logistic support for the super tucano fleet
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18667/cienciaypoderaereo.525Keywords:
Demand, Forecast, Inventories, Logistic Support, Residual Error, Time SeriesAbstract
The prognosis becomes indispensable in any productive organization, considering that it is the basis of long-term planning in any functional area and therefore a vital tool for management decision-making. The art of forecasting aims to predict the demand for a product or service in such a way that the productive system is efficient and responds to the needs in quantity and opportunity. In the first instance, this article makes a bibliographic tour to describe the context of the forecast, then a documentary revision is carried out in terms of projections of various industrial sectors, and finally the particularity of the forecast is presented in the Colombian Air Force specifically with a proposal for the projection of the demand of the aeronautical logistic support of the fleet of the Super Tucano A-29 team in Combat Air Command No. 2; concluding that the suggested methodology is not far from the current trends and on the contrary brings together most of them, selecting the best model independently for each component of the fleet, a fact that guarantees a correct inference and that when meeting the established conditions can be extrapolated and standardized for the aeronautical logistic support of the Colombian Air Force, a situation that if presented would generate a high budgetary impact for the Air Force, for the Ministry of Defense and therefore for national public finances, because the costs of logistic support would reflect a decrease from previous periods.Downloads
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